Santos: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Santos: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Santos (STO.AX)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

Total Sales Volume (mmboe) 93.5 104.3 113.0 112.0 19 Aug 2026 Half Year 2026 Santos Ltd Earnings Release

Brent oil Assumption (US$/bbl) 68 89 72 70 Q4 2026 Papua LNG FID

FX rate (A$/US$) (000s) 0.65 0.70 0.70 0.70 22 Oct 2026 Q3 2026 Santos Ltd Activities Report

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Growth projects and reserves replacement RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

High leverage to Brent oil prices and A$/US$ Higher oil and LNG prices

exchange rate Execution of divestments which lift FCF yield Sales / 6,873

Low cost structure, providing an element of and dividend yields Revenue 6,304 7,625

defence in current climate Upgrades to reserves/resources and higher (US$, mn) 6,981

Investment in carbon capture, use and storage production guidance

Approvals to proceed with development

5,055

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE projects EBITDA

4,102 5,616

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE (US$, mn) 4,968

0-10% North America Lower oil and LNG prices

to reserves/resources APAC, ex Japan, Mainland Downgrades 90- 0.54 100% China and India Failure to execute on projects, divestments, and EPS

0.39 0.74

free cash flow, e.g., cost and time overrun (US$)

Policy intervention or litigation risks 0.55

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

View explanation of regional hierarchies here

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING DPS 0.35

0.16 0.42

MS ALPHA MODELS Inst. Owners, % Active 35.2% (US$) 0.31

4/5 3 Month Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

MOST Horizon Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is