China Equity Strategy: A-share Sentiment Lukewarm Amid Policy Vacuum and IPO Concerns

研报英文原文证据摘录

China Equity Strategy: A-share Sentiment Lukewarm Amid Policy Vacuum and IPO Concerns

Idea

July 23, 2026 09:00 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+MChina Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific Laura Wang

Equity Strategist

A-share Sentiment Lukewarm Laura.Wang@morganstanley.comChloe Liu +852 2848-6853

Chloe.Liu1@morganstanley.com +852 2848-5497

Amid Policy Vacuum and IPO Vicky Wu

Vicky.Wu@morganstanley.com +852 3963-3928

Concerns

MSASI softened ahead of July Politburo meeting and the

upcoming CXMT IPO. We stay constructive on Hong Kong and

continue to see late July and August as a sustainable recovery

window. Earnings preview reveals accelerating earnings growth Exhibit 1 : MS A-share Sentiment Indicator:

in tech, warranting recovery once global volatility calms down MSASI weighted and MSASI weighted 1MMA

MSASI (Weighted 1MMA) Current CSI 300 (RHS)

6,000A-share investor sentiment decreased vs. the previous cycle: Weighted MSASI 100% MSASI (Weighted) MSASI (Weighted 1MMA) =

decreased by 7ppt vs. the prior cutoff date (July 15) to 37%. Weighted MSASI 1MMA 90%80% 78% 5,5005,000

also decreased 2ppt over the same period at 57%. Turnover for ChiNext, A-share and 70%60% 57% 4,5004,000

3,500margin transaction outstanding declined by 6% (to Rmb667bn), 7% (to Rmb2,677bn) 50%40% 37%

3,000

30%

2,500and 6% (to Rmb2,729bn), respectively, vs. the previous cycle, while equity futures 20%

2,000 10% 22%

turnover increased by 8% (to Rmb734bn). The 30-day RSI was stable over the same 0% 1,500

Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22 May-22 Sep-22 Jan-23 May-23 Sep-23 Jan-24 May-24 Sep-24 Jan-25 May-25 Sep-25 Jan-26 May-26 Sep-26

period (July 15-22).