Oatly Group AB: Q2 Follow-Up: Milk Momentum with Q2 Revenue Upside

研报英文原文证据摘录

Oatly Group AB: Q2 Follow-Up: Milk Momentum with Q2 Revenue Upside

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Oatly -GroupOatlyAB (OTLY.O)Group AB (OTLY.O)

Turnaround in Progress

PRICE TARGET $12.50 EQUAL-WEIGHT THESIS

On an EV/Sales basis, our $12.50 price target implies ~0.7x 2027 EV/Sales, which is close to We see Oatly as having MSD revenue

unprofitable CPG peers with lower visibility, but reflects solid OTLY LT topline growth growth potential LT, with its refreshed

potential in oat milk, and building profitability. growth playbook driving broad-based

volume growth, share gains, particularly in

$19.38 Europe, and improving NA traction, offset by

Consensus Price Target Distribution $12.00 $29.00 still-low visibility given uncertainty around

MS PT the durability of category growth/OTLY

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates share gains. OTLY is making profitability

progress, but with volatility.

RISK REWARD CHART

Consensus Rating Distribution

$23.50$23.50(+118.00%)$23.50(+118.00%)(+118.00%) 60% Overweight USD

40% Equal-weight

0% Underweight

20 MS Rating

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

$12.50$12.50(+15.96%)$12.50(+15.96%)(+15.96%) Risk Reward Themes

$10.78$10.78$10.78 Secular Growth: Positive 10

View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

$3.50$3.50(-67.53%)$3.50(-67.53%)(-67.53%)

JUL '25 JAN '26 JUL '26 JUL '27

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

BULL CASE $23.50 BASE CASE $12.50 BEAR CASE $3.50

~0.9x CY27 EV/Sales ~0.7x CY27 EV/Sales ~0.5x CY27 EV/Sales

OTLY LT Topline Growth of Mid-High Teens: OTLY Top Line Growth Recovery: Valuation Weak Category Trends and OTLY Market

Oatly delivers topline upside from greater of ~0.7x 2027 EV/Sales, which is slightly Share: Volume downside on slower oat milk