J.P. Morgan Australia FTM 24 Jul 26 Mid-Year Prospects; Macquarie Group Limited; Mid-Year Prospects; Sandfire Resources; Australian labour market: Holding ground and More

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J.P. Morgan Australia FTM 24 Jul 26 Mid-Year Prospects; Macquarie Group Limited; Mid-Year Prospects; Sandfire Resources; Australian labour market: Holding ground and More

Asia Pacific Equity Research

Australia First to Market 24 July 2026

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Mid-Year Prospects (Don Carducci)

SMID

This report forms part of the J.P. Morgan Australia Mid-Year Prospects series as we take stock at the mid-point of 2026 and set

out our Top Picks and Least Preferred stocks for the remainder of the year.

Macquarie Group Limited (Andrew Triggs) (MQG AU, OW)

2026 AGM: Positive start to FY27 despite CEO transition; well positioned for upgrades through year

As expected, MQG made a strong start to FY27 with Q1 performance “up” in BFS and MacCap, and “substantially up” in CGM.

Only MAM was lower, but this reflected the sale of the US/European public investments business in 2H26, with strong AUM

growth trends in the quarter. Recent volatility in financial and commodities markets supported CGM performance (relative to a

weak pcp). While we had flagged the possibility of an upgrade to CGM division guidance, we are unperturbed by the lack

thereof, and with market conditions looking very supportive we see MQG as a strong EPS upgrade candidate for the balance of

the year. The other major news was the announcement of CEO transition; with Shemara Wikramanayake to be replaced by

current head of BFS (and former CFO) Greg Ward in Nov-27. We see Greg Ward as a sound replacement (given his strong

credentials) and expect a smooth transition with little change in strategy likely. Our earnings forecasts have lifted 1%-2% and

we retain our OW rating. Our PT increases 4% on our earnings upgrades and a slight increase in the MAM/CGM multiples in

our SOTP to 25x/15x (from 24x/14.5x).

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