Motiva: Regis Bittencourt: modest NPV creation potential; efficiencies key for upside

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Motiva: Regis Bittencourt: modest NPV creation potential; efficiencies key for upside

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Motiva

Regis Bittencourt: modest NPV creation

potential; efficiencies key for upside

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 21.00 BRL | Price: 14.82 BRL

Regis Bittencourt fits well strategically for Motiva 20 July 2026

Regis Bittencourt (BR-116/SP/PR) contract renegotiation should be auctioned on Jul- Equity

23rd. The asset connects São Paulo and Parana states and we think is aligned with

Motiva's strategy of pursuing opportunities in premium geographies, particularly in

Key Changesstates where it already operates and has strong visibility on traffic dynamics. Mgmt has

previously highlighted that it was evaluating the asset (see: Motiva conference call). (BRL) Previous Current

Price Obj. 21.50 21.00

2026E DPS 0.54 0.39Relatively low NPV creation; limited leverage impact

Under the govt’s base tariff, traffic, opex and capex assumptions and using Motiva’s

cost of equity (9.2% real terms), we estimate a NPV of cR$200mn (R$0.1/sh). We also Rogerio Araujo >>

Research Analyst

estimate a limited impact on leverage, with net debt/EBITDA declining by c0.1x in 2028 Merrill Lynch (Brazil)

- 2034. The NPV creation could reach up to cR$350mn (R$0.2/sh) assuming the use of +55 11 2188 4255 rogerio.araujo@bofa.com

fiscal losses, non-amortized intangibles, traffic 5% above govt’s base case and the debt Gabriel Frazao >>

and cash position from the current concession - see sensitivities in Exhibit 1 – 6. Research Analyst

Merrill Lynch (Brazil)

Potential upside could be unlocked at Fernão Dias +55gabriel.frazao@bofa.com11 2188 4252

Beyond the auction itself, we see incremental value creation triggers for Motiva. As a

recap, Motiva won Fernao Dias’ auction in December, and management highlighted