Oberoi Realty First Take: Commercial holds up in 1Q, residential to be the star next quarter; stay OW

研报英文原文证据摘录

Oberoi Realty First Take: Commercial holds up in 1Q, residential to be the star next quarter; stay OW

Gaurav Khandelwal, CFA AC Asia Pacific Equity Research

(91-22) 6157-3575 19 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

gaurav.khandelwal@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Oberoi Realty (Overweight; Price Target: Rs2,050.00)

Investment Thesis

We are OW on Oberoi Realty.

Oberoi Realty is a Mumbai-based developer, commands ~3% market share in MMR and

delivered ~Rs 53bn in annual pre-sales as of FY25. While its core focus remains MMR, new

launches in NCR signal expansion. Oberoi leads our coverage with the highest EBITDA

margin and RoCE, driven by its luxury positioning. Its sizeable annuity business—

including commercial, hospitality, and schools—contributes ~20% of revenues and is set

to scale further. With one of the lowest leverage levels in the sector and a net cash position

as of Sept-25, Oberoi’s financial strength stands out.

Valuation

Our Mar-27 PT of Rs2,050 is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP). We value the residential

business at 18x normalized earnings. Our PT assumes ~Rs84bn in residential pre-sales in

FY27E, and a 7.5% cap rate for the annuity business.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Key downside risks to our views include: a) lower-than-anticipated launches and pre-sales;

b) higher prices and larger upfront payments being required in later project stages by home

borrowers, which could slow down sales velocity; c) regulatory risks in the MMR region

delaying project launches; d) product mix being skewed to premium and luxury segments;

hence a slowdown in those segments could have a disproportionate impact on Oberoi’s

operations; and e) inability to scale up commercial offices or lower-than-expected

occupancy.