J.P. Morgan India FTM 20 Jul 26 India Data watch; Reliance Industries Ltd; India Retail; JSW Steel; Oberoi Realty and More

研报英文原文证据摘录

J.P. Morgan India FTM 20 Jul 26 India Data watch; Reliance Industries Ltd; India Retail; JSW Steel; Oberoi Realty and More

Asia Pacific Equity Research

India First to Market 20 July 2026

Top Stories

India (Sajjid Z Chinoy)

• June CPI firms but internals benign; inflation tracking below RBI’s forecast

• Central bank expected to remain on hold at August meeting

• CAD lower than expected in May; capital flows also improve from April

• CAD expected at 0.8% of GDP in 2Q26

Reliance Industries Ltd (Sanjay Mookim) (RELIANCE IN, OW)

1QFY27: Finally, a beat

RIL’s 1QFY27 PAT (after minorities) of Rs209bn beat JPMe / consensus by 9/6%. O2C segment EBITDA increased 17% QoQ,

benefiting from higher refining and petrochemical margins. Retail operating EBITDA fell c.2% YoY as margins were hurt by

continued focus on e-Commerce. Commodity strength, commissioning of new energy projects and valuations are key drivers of

our OW rating.

India Retail (Latika Chopra, CFA)

Reliance Retail: Q1 Margins soften amid Digital build-out; FMCG ramp-up underway

We attended RIL’s analyst meet post Q1FY27 earnings. Revenue growth of 12% (ex-RCPL) was broadly in-line with Grocery,

Fashion & Lifestyle and Consumer Electronics clocked DD underlying growth (LFL: ~7%/4%/16%). Accelerated investments in

quick delivery operations/infrastructure weighed on margins, leading to a 2% y/y EBITDA decline (below estimates). Net store

addition was slower at +9 with the overall retail space nearly flat q/q. The hyperlocal platform continues to scale across grocery,

fashion and electronics (now servicing 5.5k+ pincodes), supporting strong customer acquisition and order growth; management

remains focused on improving repeat rates, increasing basket size and enhancing serviceability to drive better profitability.