Oxford Biomedica Execution on orders and Revenues required to improve confidence in the £0.5bn mid-term target, remain Neutral

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Oxford Biomedica Execution on orders and Revenues required to improve confidence in the £0.5bn mid-term target, remain Neutral

C A Z E N O V E Europe Equity Research

20 July 2026

Oxford Biomedica

Execution on orders and Revenues required to improve Neutral

confidence in the £0.5bn mid-term target, remain OXB.L, OXB LN

Neutral Price (17 Jul 26):646p

Price Target (Jun-27):550p

Ahead of OXB’s trading update (expected end of July/start of August) and European Pharmaceuticals &

following OXB’s Capital Markets Event in June, we make 1-3% upgrades to our Biotechnology

2026-31 Revenue forecasts (£2-11m) and cut our Operating EBITDA forecasts by Zain Ebrahim AC

8-20%, largely due to our 2030 Revenue forecast of £435m being below OXB’s (44-20) 3493-1163

2030 target of £500m, leading us to revise down our 2031 Operating EBITDA zain.ebrahim@jpmorgan.com

margin forecast to 28.7% (from: 31%). Near-term, we expect OXB to provide a J.P. Morgan Securities plc

trading update on 1H by the end of July/early August, where our forecast for 1H Richard Vosser

2026 Revenues of £93m is c. 2% below BBG Consensus, with 27% growth in 1H (44-20) 7742-6652

richard.vosser@jpmorgan.com

below the implied 2026 guidance range of 30-42% Revenue growth (£220-240m J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Revenue guide), reflecting planned shutdowns and tech transfer time for Durham. Sophia Graeff Buhl Nielsen

Over the mid-term, we forecast a 2025-30 Revenue CAGR of 21% to £435m in (44-20) 7742-3918

2030, 13% below OXB’s target of £500m in 2030/31 (25% 2025-30 Revenue sophia.graeffbuhlnielsen@jpmorgan.com

CAGR) outlined at the Capital Markets Event, with further evidence of execution J.P. Morgan Securities plc

on both Revenues and orders required to drive upgrades. We remain on the James D Wantling