NOTE-Supply chain disruptions are hitting volumes and cash flow-07/15/2026

研报英文原文证据摘录

NOTE-Supply chain disruptions are hitting volumes and cash flow-07/15/2026

NOTE

NEWSFLASH | 15 JUL 2026

Supply chain disruptions are hitting volumes and cash flow

NOTE delivered Q2'26 EBIT adj. 11%/6% below PAS/cons, driven by a soft +1% OSG and adj. margin of 9.6% (flat Y/Y).

Organic backlog for 2026E grew +11% (3rd consecutive quarter of double-digit OG), suggesting volumes are constrained by

component shortages and lead-times rather than weaker demand. Industrial and S&D grew +11% and +23% Y/Y excluding

M&A, while other segments declined. Lead-times also pressured OCF at SEK -8m (SEK 103m), driven by higher inventories

and receivables Y/Y. While Q2 was another disappointing delivery quarter, pent-up demand points to strong growth

returning as disruptions ease, and we see an attractive entry point on likely soft share reaction today.

Key items

• Organic 2026E order backlog +11% Y/Y, marking the third consecutive quarter of double-digit organic backlog growth

• 9.5-10.5% EBIT margin guidance for 2026E reiterated, with progressively increasing OSG in H2’26E

• New customer in hardware for data center applications with potential annual sales of SEK 100m in 2028E

• OCF SEK -8 (103), impacted by higher inventories (+36% Y/Y) and receivables (+18% Y/Y) due to longer lead-times and M&A

• NIBD/EBITDA at ~3.2x, attributable to increased debt from the STI acquisition and softer OCF

Segment performance

• Industrial: +11% Y/Y excluding acquisitions, mainly driven by Swedish customers

• Security & Defence: +23% Y/Y excluding acquisitions (+162% including STI and Kasdon)

• Communication: -5% Y/Y excluding acquisitions, severely impacted by delayed 5G investments, partly offset by Waystream volumes