Poised For Growth Post-Vyvanse

研报英文原文证据摘录

Poised For Growth Post-Vyvanse

TD Cowen Pharmaceutical Industry Pulse Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Ltd

Global Research July 2026

Takeda Key Upcoming Events

Management Guidance at CER Forecast Our Estimates*

Sales Low-single-digit % decline JPY 4,640B JPY 4,659B (+3%)

Operating Profit 5-8% decline JPY 1,160B JPY 1,157B (-1%)

Effective Tax Rate - Low 10s % adj EBITDA 24.2%^

Diluted EPS Mid-teens % decline JPY 472 JPY 486 (-3%)

* Includes currency impact

^ Percent of net income

Source: Company data; clinicaltrials.gov

Single-Digit Long-Term EPS Growth Forecast

We Estimate FY2026 EPS To Be Down As Vyvanse Goes Generic

More fulsome Vyvanse sales erosion is likely to depress FY2026 numbers prior to

a rebound in momentum, though Vyvanse generics have had supply issues and

the pace of competition has been uncertain. We estimate FY2026 sales to be up

3% to JPY 4,659B. GPM is estimated to be flat at 65.1%. We project SG&A to grow

slightly to 1,105B (23.7% of sales). We have R&D growing to JPY 770B (16.5% of

sales). Operating margin is forecast to compress to 24.8%. Tax rate is projected

to be mostly flat at 24.2%. We forecast EPS to be down slightly to JPY 486.

Estimated FY2025-32 +4% EPS CAGR Reflects Margin Expansion

We expect sales to grow relatively consistently after FY2026 as the slow Vyvanse

erosion (due to generic supplier issues) is offset by new launches. We project

sales to reach JPY 5,147B in FY2031. In FY2032, we assume biosimilar

competition for Entyvio drives a 3% decline in revenue to JPY 5,011B. We

anticipate EPS increasing in FY2027-31 by 2-12% until FY2032 when assumed

Entyvio LOE causes an 8% decline to JPY 663. Through FY2031, SG&A is forecast

to shrink as a percentage of sales, reaching 21.9% before jumping to 22.3% in

FY2032.