Duolingo Inc: 2Q Preview: Repairing Trends, Is DUOL At An Inflection Point?

研报英文原文证据摘录

Duolingo Inc: 2Q Preview: Repairing Trends, Is DUOL At An Inflection Point?

Idea

July 16, 2026 08:05 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMDuolingo Inc | North America Nathan Feather

Equity Analyst

2Q Preview: Repairing Trends, Is Nathan.Feather@morganstanley.comBrian Nowak, CFA +1 212 761-9812

Brian.Nowak@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3365

DUOL At An Inflection Point? Wen Zhang, CFA

Equity Strategist

What’s Changed Wen.Zhang@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1732

Duolingo Inc (DUOL.O) From To Duolingo Inc (DUOL.O, DUOL US)

Price Target $95.00 $125.00

Internet | United States of America

Stock Rating Equal-weight

A few quarters into its strategy shift, data implies DUOL is Industry View Attractive

finding ways to accelerate DAU growth while simultaneously PriceShr price,targetclose (Jul 15, 2026) $125.00$131.22

opening new forms of monetization. We are tactically positive Mkt cap, curr (mm) $6,429 52-Week Range $468.00-87.89

on 2Q earnings as we see upside across the PnL. Remain EW; Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

raise our PT from $95 to $125. EPS ($)** 8.57 2.73 3.16 4.49

Prior EPS ($)** - 2.68 2.81 3.71

P/E 20.5 48.1 41.5 29.3

EPS ($)§ 8.06 2.78 3.22 4.04M Div yld (%) - - - -

Key Takeaways Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

We are tactically positive into 2Q as we see positive momentum across users, ** = Based on consensus methodology

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

bookings, and EBITDA which could point to an inflection point e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Quarterly EPS ($)

We expect 2Q DAU growth to accelerate for the first time in ~2 years as DUOL as 2026e 2026e 2027e 2027e

Quarter 2025 Prior Current Prior Current

June's streak repair event was a clear win

Q1 0.72 - 0.89a 0.68 0.70