India Refiners: MRPL Quarter: Implications for "Golden Age"

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India Refiners: MRPL Quarter: Implications for "Golden Age"

Update

July 16, 2026 02:29 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+MIndia Refiners | Asia Pacific Mayank Maheshwari

Equity Analyst

MRPL Quarter: Implications for Mayank.Maheshwari@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+ +65 6834-6719

Pranitha Shetty

Research Associate"Golden Age" Pranitha.Shetty@morganstanley.com +91 22 6118-3022

Hinal Choudhary

Key Takeaways ResearchHinal.Choudhary@morganstanley.comAssociate +91 22 6118-2044

MRPL (not covered; owned by ONGC & HPCL), reported strong June-26 earnings, Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+

which implies GRM of US$8.4/bbl (MSe), above mid-cycle despite headwinds. Vivek Rajamani

Earnings imply higher-for-longer profits, as last quarter saw maximum impact of Vivek.Rajamani@morganstanley.com +65 6834-6740

high crude premiums, windfall taxes on fuel exports and inventory losses. Ryan M Heng

Constrained global capacity additions and upgraded refinery hardware should Ryan.Heng@morganstanley.com +65 6834-6465

support new higher mid-cycle refining economics for Indian OMCs.

We remain above consensus on average by 39% for F28 earnings across HPCL,

IOCL and BPCL.

MRPL's F1Q27 earnings highlight the strength of Indian refiners despite a more

India Oil & Gas

challenging cost environment. As markets continue to focus on near-term volatility, Asia Pacific

we believe improving industry structure creates scope for sustained returns above Industry View In-Line

historical norms. This underpins our positive stance on the sector. See Refiners: The

"Golden Age" and Asia Energy Security and AI: Supercycle Recharges.

Exhibit 1: MRPL: GRM reflects Exhibit 2: Global refining margins are

improving refining economics, shifting to a structurally higher level