J.P. Morgan Australia FTM 16 Jul 26 BHP; Australian Banks; Macquarie Group Limited; Super Retail Group Ltd and More

研报英文原文证据摘录

J.P. Morgan Australia FTM 16 Jul 26 BHP; Australian Banks; Macquarie Group Limited; Super Retail Group Ltd and More

Asia Pacific Equity Research AC Asia Pacific Equity Research

17 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

aprr.publications@jpmorgan.com

we maintain our positive outlook on the shares. Retain OW.

Super Retail Group Ltd (Bryan Raymond) (SUL AU, OW)

FY26 Result Outlook – Sales improvement from Mar/Apr trough in focus

Super Retail Group’s FY26 result will be released on Thursday, 20 August. The focus of the results will be: 1) the degree of

sales improvement across fuel price impacted divisions (SCA and BCF) after the Mar-Apr top-line deceleration; 2) margin

outlook given a 3.25% wage increase, which is less than most retailers due to a 2024 EBA; and 3) progress on the return to

growth strategy (Project Ignite), as a return on investment in the initiatives announced at the June investor day. With no

changes to our earnings forecasts, we maintain our Overweight rating into the FY26 results with a $15.00 Jun-27 price target,

at which point Super Retail would be on a one-year forward PER of ~14x.

Global Research

Flows & Liquidity (Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou)

The need for deleveraging

The investor deleveraging phase that started in June appears to be still ongoing and we see more room for deleveraging in

leveraged equity ETFs, options and margin accounts, thus acting as a headwind for equities going forward.The excessive

growth of leveraged equity ETFs can be self-correcting: if excess leverage creates higher frequency of VaR shocks, a volatile

range-trading in equities would over time shrink the AUM of leveraged equity ETFs.

China: Growth weakened despite activity stabilization (Feng Zhu)

Production steadies, domestic demand drags