ASML (AO) | Buy | Visibility turns into leverage

研报英文原文证据摘录

ASML (AO) | Buy | Visibility turns into leverage

News comment

Release date: 15 July 2026

Ruben Devos, CFA

Equity Research Analyst

+32 11 49 14 68

rdevos@keplercheuvreux.com

BuyASML

Netherlands | IT Hardware & Semis Beta Profile: MCap: EUR612.2bn Country Top Picks

Target Price: EUR1830.00 Bloomberg: ASML NA Reuters: ASML.AS

Current Price: EUR1555.80 Free float 100%

Up/downside: 17.6% Avg. daily volume (EURm) 1,781.0

YTD abs performance 68.9% Market data: 14 July 2026

52-week high/low (EUR) 1721.40/592.90

Visibility turns into leverage

Key points:

ASML's Q2 2026 results exceeded expectations, with sales 6% above consensus, EBIT +13%, and EPS +11%.

The midpoint of its Q3 2026 guidance is 11% and 26% higher than the revenue and EBIT forecasts, respectively.

ASML raised its FY 2026 sales guidance to EUR43–45bn from EUR36–40bn, implying a 16% increase at the midpoint. The upgrade

reflects stronger Logic and Memory demand, accelerated customer capacity additions, higher Installed Base upgrades, increased

EUV shipments and resilient immersion demand. At the midpoint, guidance implies 11% upside to consensus sales and 17%

upside to gross profit.

An impressive print, with the top-line beat carried right across the portfolio and a markedly richer mix (more EUV, more ArFi,

more IBM) driving a near-3ppt gross margin beat versus consensus for 2026, alongside clear operating leverage (Q2 OPM of

37.1%). The one point of debate will be the 2027 capacity target: +c.30% to c.85 Low-NA units lands broadly in line with

consensus, rather than ahead of the 90+ the more bullish buy-side had hoped for. We read that guide as conservative, and in any

case the unit count is only one revenue lever. Two others lift revenue and margin without touching the headline tool number: (i)