Joinn Laboratories China Co Ltd: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Joinn Laboratories China Co Ltd: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Joinn Laboratories China Co Ltd (6127.HK)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Non-clinical studies services

1,577,040 1,768,405 1,966,719 2,346,887

revenue (Rmb, mn)

(17.8) 12.1 11.2 19.3

revenue growth (%)

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Volume and ASP of DSA orders RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

Supply and fair value change of non-human Faster DSA demand growth and stronger than

primate models expected margin performance. Sales / 1,861.9

Progress of industry chain extension and Greater market share gain amid industry Revenue 1,740.1 1,962.0

globalization consolidation. (Rmb, mn) 1,867.8

Changes in regulatory policies Expedited progress of clinical services.

Private funding and listing of biotech companies

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

0.7

Softer China market DSA demand due to rising EPS

competition and higher cost. (Rmb) Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplyingGLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE consensus data for this metric Greater-than expected loss from significant

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland drop in NHP prices. 0-10%

China and India US House call to ban early stage China data

0-10% Europe ex UK causing fluctuations in demand. 492

20-30% North America Net income

50-60% Mainland China (Rmb, mn) Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING consensus data for this metric

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

View explanation of regional hierarchies here Inst. Owners, % Active 5.3%

Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

MS ALPHA MODELS

4/5 3 Month

MOST Horizon

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored

Quintile