J.P. Morgan Australia FTM 16 Jul 26 Rio Tinto Limited; Coles Group Ltd; Woolworths Group Ltd; Evolution Mining Ltd. and More

研报英文原文证据摘录

J.P. Morgan Australia FTM 16 Jul 26 Rio Tinto Limited; Coles Group Ltd; Woolworths Group Ltd; Evolution Mining Ltd. and More

Asia Pacific Equity Research AC Asia Pacific Equity Research

16 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

aprr.publications@jpmorgan.com

sales momentum in 1Q27e (5.4% vs 4.5% sales growth) and supermarket EBIT growth in FY27e (+11.9% vs +6.6%) and

FY28e (+10.1% vs +5.1%). This underpins a ~17% FY27e PER premium to Coles, however in 12 months’ time, on our price

target and above-consensus earnings forecasts, Woolworths’ PER would be in-line with Coles’ at 23.2x, which we believe is

appropriate given earnings growth differentials narrow from FY29e.

Evolution Mining Ltd. (Jonathon Sharp) (EVN AU, OW)

JunQ26 solid; FY27 cost reset ahead of growth benefits

Key takeaways from the JunQ26 results: 1) JunQ gold production of 180koz was broadly in line with JPMe, copper sales

beat by 33% and AISC of A$1,706/oz was 6% better; cash remained strong at A$1,347m despite a A$399m cash dividend. 2)

EVN has disclosed the FY27 cost and capital uplift before quantifying the benefits: we raise FY27 AISC by 6% to A$1,997/oz

and capex including exploration to A$1,560m, with earnings broadly unchanged. 3) Higher investment supports reliability and

growth at Cowal and Northparkes, where the Regal portal, E41/E42, E22, E44 and mill expansion provide upside not captured

in our base case. We retain Overweight with a revised valuation of A$14.10/sh.

Global Research

Long Term Strategy (Mika Inkinen/Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou)

Which equity income strategy long-term investors should adopt?

The current regime of “2020–2026 Post-COVID — AI era” has posed a challenge for traditional dividend income funds targeting

high dividend yield as they significantly underperformed the broader market.