VIE: Model Update ahead of H1

研报英文原文证据摘录

VIE: Model Update ahead of H1

804.0EQUITY We maintain our FY26E organic EBITDA growth forecast of 5.4%, at the Prev. 4,053.0 4,388.0 4,761.0

lower to mid-end of Veolia's 5-6% guidance range, reflecting limited M&A EPS, Adj Basic 2.25 2.44 2.69 3.03

synergies this year before acceleration to 5.9% in FY27E. We expect a Q2 Prev. 2.40 2.66 2.99

rebound in Waste following Q1's slight revenue decline (-0.1%) due to P/AEPS 16.4x 15.2x 13.8x 12.2x

unseasonably cold weather. However, we expect the Middle East conflict DPS 1.50 1.63 1.80 2.04

to have potentially impacted contract revenue growth in Water Tech's Prev. 1.60 1.78 2.01

Div Yield 4.1% 4.4% 4.9% 5.5% 'projects' subdivision (Q1: -2.2%), though divisional EBITDA growth should

be supported by margin expansion from ongoing WTS cost synergies. EBIT refers to Current EBIT

All values in EUR unless otherwise noted.

Valuation remains attractive versus stretched utility peer group Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted).

Following strong share price performance ytd (+~24%), Veolia trades at

14.9x 12m forward P/E, elevated on a historical basis (5-year avg.: 13.9x),

but still a ~5% discount to the European utilities sector (10-year avg.:

~10% premium). While we acknowledge potential short-term sentiment

headwinds from French politics (both its annual budget and Presidential

Elections), we continue to view this as unjustified discount to peers given

attractive EPS growth (FY25-9E CAGR: 8.9%) and mostly defensive earnings

profile.

PT moves to €40.5/sh, ~13% implied TSR upside

We update for MtM movements, positive weather effects, and an

additional month of Clean Earth consolidation in FY26E following the $3bn

deal completing slightly ahead of schedule. We also reflect higher long-