Veolia Environnement (VIE FP) Solid results, resilient business model

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Veolia Environnement (VIE FP) Solid results, resilient business model

14 May 2026

Veolia Environnement (VIE FP) EquitiesMulti-Utilities

Solid results, resilient business model France

◆ Solid results – strong efficiency gains offsetting weather-related

MAINTAIN BUY

volume weakness; FY26 guidance confirmed

TARGET PRICE (EUR) PREVIOUS TARGET (EUR)◆ Business well protected from cost inflation due to indexation;

higher energy prices tend to be a small net positive overall 40.00 38.00

◆ Maintain Buy rating, increase TP to EUR40.00 (from EUR38.00) SHARE PRICE (EUR) UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE

34.27 +16.7%

Q1 2026 highlights: (i) Solid 1Q 2026 results with organic EBITDA increasing 5.1% YoY, (as of 12 May 2026)

despite weather and outages disrupting waste operations in the US and Europe in MARKET DATA

January-February. (ii) Strong efficiency retention rate (64%) helped to offset volume Market cap (EURm) 25,445 Free float 95%

Market cap (USDm) 29,868 BBG VIE FP

weakness and a growing share of AI-led operational efficiency gains should structurally 3m ADTV (USDm) 81 RIC VIE.PA

improve the retention rate, supporting margin expansion over time. (iii) Underlying

FINANCIALS AND RATIOS (EUR)demand trends remain positive, and management confirmed volumes recovered in March Year to 12/2025a 12/2026e 12/2027e 12/2028e

and April, providing confidence for a more normalised 2Q. (iv) Minimal impact from the HSBC EPS 2.24 2.44 2.63 2.96

HSBC EPS (prev) 2.24 2.43 2.61 2.98

Middle East conflict – slightly lower Hazardous Waste volumes and delays to the Water Change (%) 0.0 0.3 0.6 -0.9

Tech project pipeline are manageable. The group is protected from higher fuel costs by Consensus EPS 2.21 2.39 2.62 2.85

PE (x) 15.3 14.0 13.0 11.6