MRK: 2Q26 Preview: In-line print expected; But FY setup remains attractive

研报英文原文证据摘录

MRK: 2Q26 Preview: In-line print expected; But FY setup remains attractive

Merck & Co., Inc.

Target/Upside/Downside Scenarios Investment summary

Merck's sentiment has markedly improved as it moves pastMerck & Co., Inc.

Gardasil concerns with robust pipeline visibility, particularly

160 125 Weeks 15FEB24 - 07JUL26 oral PCSK9 and CADENCE programs. Over the next 12-18

140 TARGETTARGET 142.00142.00 months, we expect enthusiasm to continue with near-

CURRENTCURRENT 128.86128.86 120 term launches and P3 readouts driving consensus upgrades.

While the market frets over Keytruda's late-2028 loss of

100 exclusivity, this de-risking and management's track record

80 gives us confidence in an early-2030s return-to-growth versus

60 consensus erosion well into the mid-2030s. We anticipate

40 multiple expansion as management deploys cash flow into

150m R&D and potential M&A throughout 2026, positioning Merck

100m

50m to navigate through the LOE and reignite growth.

2024 2025 2026

F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J

MRK US Rel. S&P 500 COMPOSITE MA 40 weeks Risks to rating and price target

Source: Bloomberg and RBC Capital Markets estimates for Target (1) Unsuccessful commercialisation of new large growth

Valuation drivers – Winrevair, Ohtuvayre, (2) Surprise negative pipeline

Our 12-month Price Target of $142 is based on a 16x multiple trial results – TL1A. Cidara, V490, (3) If generic/biosimilar

on our forward fully diluted operating EPS forecast of $8.77. companies successfully challenge any of the MRK key patents,

We think Merck’s near-term catalyst calendar and long-term (4) Delays or rejections for approval of investigational assets

earnings profile justify a multiple ~2 turns above peers. This - enlicitide, and (5) Macro conditions improve better than