Visibility On Growth Trajectory Post Keytruda Needed

研报英文原文证据摘录

Visibility On Growth Trajectory Post Keytruda Needed

TD Cowen Pharmaceuticals/Major

Global Research

Merck

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC

July 14, 2026

Price: $120.78 (07/14/2026) Visibility On Growth Trajectory Post Keytruda

Price Target: $137.00 Needed

HOLD (2)

Steve Scala, R.Ph., CFA THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

617 946 3923

Our analysis suggests relative multiples typically trough 2 years prior to major LOEs (YE'26 for

stephen.scala@tdsecurities.com

MRK). But performance thereafter is predicated in part on vibrant growth recovery, which MRK

Michael Nedelcovych, Ph.D. may not offer. While there are multiple readouts in 2026-27 and several ongoing launches,

617 946 3744 these catalysts may not provide sufficient visibility to bolster confidence. Pending clarity, we

michael.nedelcovych@tdsecurities.com

rate MRK Hold.

Chris LoBianco

617 946 3734 Near-Term P&L Complicated By One-Time Factors; +6% EPS CAGR Expected 2025-28, But

chris.lobianco@tdsecurities.com EPS Declines Thereafter As Keytruda LOE Clips Prospects

Paul Kuhn, Ph.D. Merck's P&L in 2026-28 is complicated by one-time factors; overall we forecast a +6% EPS

646 562 1328

CAGR in 2025-28 driven by annual sales growth of +4-7%. We then estimate EPS declines of

paul.kuhn@tdsecurities.com

8-13% in 2029-30 due to Keytruda's late 2028 U.S. patent expiry, followed by more muted

Key Data 0-4% EPS decline in 2031-32. Sales are expected to decline 0-5% each year in 2029-32 as new

Symbol NYSE: MRK products blunt (but do not offset) Keytruda IV LOE.

Beta: 0.20

On-Market Products Expected To Blunt (But Not Offset) Keytruda LOE Cliff

52-Week Range: $129.56-$77.60

Market Cap: $298.3B Gardasil's outlook unclear, with CDC switch to 1-dose subject of ongoing litigation; potential

Net Debt (MM): $43,344.0 ex-U.S.