VZ: Most to Lose from Satellite So Most to Gain—Initiate at Equal Weight

研报英文原文证据摘录

VZ: Most to Lose from Satellite So Most to Gain—Initiate at Equal Weight

Wireless Carriers Equity Research

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ)

Investment Thesis

VZ has the most to lose and the most to gain from an MVNO with Starlink, and the new CEO may be looking at things differently. We apply

a 40% probability to a deal. Without a satellite partnership, we think VZ is at risk to weaker PP & FWA net adds and has a significant capital

call ahead for spectrum. VZ is our most preferred Telco given the potential to reposition the business. We rate VZ Equal Weight.

Target Price Valuation for VZ

• On a standalone basis (no MVNO), we value Verizon at ~$34/sh, applying a ~5.8x EV/EBITDA multiple to blended CY’27/’28 Adj.

EBITDA of ~$55bn.

• Our estimated Starlink MVNO scenario implies ~$57/sh, reflecting modest EBITDA upside and a ~10% uplift to the EV/EBITDA

multiple as Verizon becomes a participant in satellite-driven growth.

• Applying a 40% probability to the MVNO outcome results in a blended price target of $43/sh, representing the largest MVNO

weighting across the Big 3.

Risks to Our Price Target and Rating for VZ

• A Starlink MVNO partnership is not realized, or occurs with less favorable economics, posing a downside risk.

• Spectrum costs increase, weighing on FCF generation and posing a downside risk.

• Wireless subscriber trends stabilize or improve, with stronger-than-expected postpaid net adds and reduced churn. This is an upside

risk to our estimates.

• Fiber expansion and convergence drive stronger retention and revenue growth, posing upside risk.

Companies Mentioned in Report

Company Name Ticker Last Price

(07/07/26)

AMC Networks Inc. AMCX $9.99

AT&T Inc. T $21.09

Cable One, Inc. CABO $42.63

Charter Communications, Inc.