AFRM and KLAR Stand Tallest in 2Q26 BNPL Tracker

研报英文原文证据摘录

AFRM and KLAR Stand Tallest in 2Q26 BNPL Tracker

Payments, Processors, and IT Services Equity Research

Financials

FY Rev. less transaction expense (MM)

Rating Price 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E FY Price Target Upside Downside

Company Name (Ticker) 07/07/26 Curr. Prior Curr. Prior 2026 2027 To From PT PT

Payments, Processors, and IT Services

Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) OW $83.62 $2.04B NC $2.53B NC $96.00 $89.00 $105.00 $74.00

Block, Inc. (XYZ)* OW $77.56 $12.33B NC $14.07B NC $91.00 NC $108.00 $53.00

Klarna Group Plc (KLAR)* OW $19.42 $1,644.7 NC $1,982.3 NC $26.00 NC $44.00 $11.00

* For XYZ estimates represent Gross Profit (MM)

* For KLAR estimates represent Transaction Margin Dollars (MM)

Source: Company data and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates, and Factset.

OW = Overweight, EW = Equal Weight, UW = Underweight, NR = Not Rated

NA = Not Available, NC = No Change, NE = No Estimate, NM = Not Meaningful

Global BNPL Data

• Affirm correlation coefficient between active users on Sensor Tower vs. reported is 0.92. Klarna

correlation coefficient is 0.97.

• Klarna is the most dominant BNPL player by number of global downloads, and accounts for 54% in

2Q26, followed by Affirm at 18%.

• According to Sensor Tower data, in 2Q, on a global basis, all players saw q/q download growth

improve vs. 1Q, consistent with typical holiday seasonality. On a y/y basis, Afterpay was the only

players that saw acceleration in 2Q.

• Zip was the only player that saw positive growth in global downloads, with Affirm flat, while Klarna,

Afterpay, and Sezzle saw y/y growth in global downloads decline.

• By global MAUs, KLAR remains the biggest player, with 63% market share of MAUs in 2Q26 (vs.

61% in 1Q26). AFRM's market share of MAUs was 18% in 2Q vs. 16% in 1Q, with Afterpay at 13%

(vs. flat vs.