New Zealand Economic Perspectives "Resilient sentiment, despite fuel..."

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New Zealand Economic Perspectives "Resilient sentiment, despite fuel..."

Global Research

10 July 2026ab

New Zealand Economic Perspectives Economics

New ZealandResilient sentiment, despite fuel pressure & weak

economy; pricing intention may slow disinflation Stephen Wu

Economist

stephen.wu@ubs.com

+61-2-9324 2283

NZ consumer sentiment relatively resilient vs Australia, despite fuel shock George Tharenou

Consumer confidence (monthly ANZ/Roy Morgan survey) has been relatively resilient to Economist

the Middle East conflict, compared with Australia (weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan survey). george.tharenou@ubs.com

+61-2-9324 3520

Confidence in June was 91.3, or ~-1¼ standard deviations below average, but better

than the near-record low of 73.5 through to mid July, or ~-2 standard deviations below Izzy Lowe

average in Australia, despite a weaker economy, ~1%pt higher unemployment, & wage Associate Economist

income growing at ~half the pace. Possible drivers for this resilience are: 1) izzy.lowe@ubs.com

+61-2-9324 2651

accommodative monetary policy settings (vs somewhat restrictive in AU); 2) a less

entrenched inflation problem, amid a negative output gap, & as the RBNZ retains Tatiana Bodrova

inflation fighting credibility; & 3) neutral house price moves (vs retracing in AU). Associate Economist

tatiana.bodrova@ubs.com

+61-29-324 2645

NZ consumer inflation expectations retraced sharply to below pre-Feb-26 levels

NZ consumer inflation expectations (2yr-ahead) retraced to 4.5% in Jun-26, well below

the 6.3% peak & below Feb-26 (4.6%). This is surprising, given fuel at the bowser

remains ~20%+ above their Feb-26 levels. Australian consumer inflation expectations,

by comparison, have not retraced as far, especially given bowser prices had dropped to