New Zealand Economic Perspectives "Resilient sentiment, despite fuel..."

Research evidence excerpt

New Zealand Economic Perspectives "Resilient sentiment, despite fuel..."

Global Research

10 July 2026ab

New Zealand Economic Perspectives Economics

New ZealandResilient sentiment, despite fuel pressure & weak

economy; pricing intention may slow disinflation Stephen Wu

Economist

stephen.wu@ubs.com

+61-2-9324 2283

NZ consumer sentiment relatively resilient vs Australia, despite fuel shock George Tharenou

Consumer confidence (monthly ANZ/Roy Morgan survey) has been relatively resilient to Economist

the Middle East conflict, compared with Australia (weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan survey). george.tharenou@ubs.com

+61-2-9324 3520

Confidence in June was 91.3, or ~-1¼ standard deviations below average, but better

than the near-record low of 73.5 through to mid July, or ~-2 standard deviations below Izzy Lowe

average in Australia, despite a weaker economy, ~1%pt higher unemployment, & wage Associate Economist

income growing at ~half the pace. Possible drivers for this resilience are: 1) izzy.lowe@ubs.com

+61-2-9324 2651

accommodative monetary policy settings (vs somewhat restrictive in AU); 2) a less

entrenched inflation problem, amid a negative output gap, & as the RBNZ retains Tatiana Bodrova

inflation fighting credibility; & 3) neutral house price moves (vs retracing in AU). Associate Economist

tatiana.bodrova@ubs.com

+61-29-324 2645

NZ consumer inflation expectations retraced sharply to below pre-Feb-26 levels

NZ consumer inflation expectations (2yr-ahead) retraced to 4.5% in Jun-26, well below

the 6.3% peak & below Feb-26 (4.6%). This is surprising, given fuel at the bowser

remains ~20%+ above their Feb-26 levels. Australian consumer inflation expectations,

by comparison, have not retraced as far, especially given bowser prices had dropped to