Semiconductors/Semi Cap Equipment 2Q26 Preview: 15% Pullback in Stocks Sets the Stage for 2H Outperformance as Upcoming Positive Earnings Revision Cycle to Continue on AI-Led Momentum and Broad Cyclical Recovery

研报英文原文证据摘录

Semiconductors/Semi Cap Equipment 2Q26 Preview: 15% Pullback in Stocks Sets the Stage for 2H Outperformance as Upcoming Positive Earnings Revision Cycle to Continue on AI-Led Momentum and Broad Cyclical Recovery

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

10 July 2026

Semiconductors/Semi Cap

Equipment

2Q26 Preview: 15% Pullback in Stocks Sets the Stage

for 2H Outperformance as Upcoming Positive Earnings

Revision Cycle to Continue on AI-Led Momentum and

Broad Cyclical Recovery

We head into 2Q26 earnings season expecting companies to deliver better 2Q Semiconductors & Semiconductor

results while providing constructive commentary on the outlook for 3Q, alongside Capital Equipment / IT Hardware

better outlooks for CY27, extending the positive earnings-revision cadence of the Harlan Sur AC

past several quarters (ex-memory, out-year EPS estimates over the past two (1-415) 315-6700

earnings seasons have been revised higher by 20-40% for semis/semicaps), and we harlan.sur@jpmorgan.com

anticipate this trend to continue — which in turn we think supports continued semis Mayur Ramdhani

outperformance through CY26, especially after the recent 13-15% pullback in the (1-212) 622-1664

group. The demand signals underpinning our overall thesis around semis mayur.ramdhani@jpmorgan.com

momentum/outperformance have, if anything, strengthened: hyperscalers and AI Apoorva Kumar

(1-212) 270-0668

labs remain capacity-constrained just as agentic-AI inference accelerates, and JPM apoorva.kumar@jpmorgan.com

now models Top-4 US hyperscaler data center capex rising ~80% Y/Y in CY26 (up J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

from 70%+ a few months ago), followed by at least 50% growth in 2027 (biased

higher), with AI-accelerator units rising to 16.3M in 2026E (+62% Y/Y) and

23.3M in 2027E (+43%).