Asmodee (1K) | Buy | Two key takeaways

研报英文原文证据摘录

Asmodee (1K) | Buy | Two key takeaways

#EarningsPreview #Positive #TPchange

#HighConviction #Actionable

Release date: 09 July 2026

Company research

BuyAsmodee

European SMID SelectedSweden | Travel & leisure MCap: SEK33.2bn List

Target Price: SEK184.00 (178.00) Change in TP: 3.4 % Bloomberg: ASMDEE SS Reuters: ASMDEEb.ST

Current Price: SEK140.30 Change in Sales: 0.6% 27E/4.5% 28E Free float 83%

Up/downside: 31.1% Change in Adj EBIT: 1.9% 27E/3.3% 28E Avg. daily volume (SEKm) 55.4

YTD abs performance 32.4% Market data: 08 July 2026 Change in Adj. EPS: 2.0% 27E/3.3% 28E

52-week high/low (SEK) 152.70/95.93

Two key takeaways Price performance

We continue to like Asmodee's business model that combines strong cash

flow, organic growth, and low-risk M&A. Two major developments are new to

the story: Firstly, Pokémon has softened its stance on the three-year cycles

for its trading cards, which now suggest that the expected clear decline in

Asmodee revenues is less likely to occur in 2027/28. Secondly, despite a very

adverse mix hurting the gross margins in 2025/26, the EBITDA margin

increased. Together with the margin-enhancing ATM Gaming acquisition, this

means that the above 18% margin target is within reach already in 2026/27.

Accordingly, we raise our forecasts and our target price to SEK 184.

Asmodee reports Q1 2026/27 on 4 August.

Asmodee has a unique business model, with two-thirds of revenue deriving from

the distribution of third-party games, the largest of which is Pokémon trading FY to 31/03 (EUR) 03/26 03/27E 03/28E

cards. We estimate that it accounts for slightly more than a third of Asmodee's Sales 1,684 1,847 1,867

revenues. The expected launch of a new Pokémon generation in late 2027 is thus a EBITDA adj. 285 335 344

EBIT adj.