Asmodee (1K) | Buy | Compounding away

研报英文原文证据摘录

Asmodee (1K) | Buy | Compounding away

ood at 2x after Consensus EPS 0.8 0.9

Q4, in line with the long-term target. Besides earnings releases, this is the most Net dividend 0.17 0.18 0.19

likely catalyst going forward. FY to 31/03 (EUR) 03/26 03/27E 03/28E

Deconstructing the forecasts P/E adj and ful. dil. 16.4 13.6 13.5

EV/EBITDA 9.5 10.6 10.0We forecast 6% organic growth and 3% contribution from M&A in 2026/27, but an EV/EBIT 10.5 11.8 11.3

organic decline of 2.7% in 2027/28, reflecting a weaker year for Pokémon. FCF yield 7.0% 5.8% 6.6%

KC margin assumptions are 17.9% in 2026/27, up 90bps year on year, mainly due Dividend yield 1.7% 1.4% 1.5% ND(F+IFRS16)/EBITDA 0.9 1.4 0.9

to the ATM Gaming acquisition and up a further 80bps in 2027/28, reflecting a Gearing 10.8% 20.8% 12.3%

better mix, as Asmodee-published games are expected to outperform Partner- ROIC 7.9% 8.9% 8.8%

published games. EV/IC 1.1 1.3 1.3

Our forecasts for EBITDA and EBIT are marginally ahead of consensus for the year.

Valuation and investment conclusion

Our DCF model returns a value of SEK 168 per share. To this, we add the potential

to create value from M&A of SEK 10 per share, an unchanged assumption from the

latest update. Consequently, we set a new target price of SEK 178.

The main change in our DCF model is the increase of EBITDA margins to 17.5%

from 15.9% in the period 2032 to the horizon forecast. The company targets

adjusted EBITDA margins of above 18% in the medium term, with the difference Rasmus Engberg Head of Swedish Equity Research

between adjusted and reported EBITDA margins currently at less than 0.5pp. +46 87 23 51 12

rengberg@keplercheuvreux.com In addition, we have lowered our WACC from 8% to 7.92%, due to the recent

refinancing, partly offset by an increase in the cost of equity.