China Consumer: Raw Materials Price Chartbook: Raw Materials Price Movements (June-26) and Stock Implications

研报英文原文证据摘录

China Consumer: Raw Materials Price Chartbook: Raw Materials Price Movements (June-26) and Stock Implications

IdeaM

Further implications for stocks

- Muyuan (002714.SZ/2714.HK, OW): Near-term earnings pressure persists given

depressed hog prices, although a continued decline should accelerate industry capacity

rationalization, in our view. As the industry leader, we believe Muyuan is well positioned

to benefit and capture greater upside once hog prices recover.

= Eastroc (605499.SS/9980.HK, OW): Eastroc benefits from lock-in of PET costs for full-

year 2026 and sugar cost for ~six months at prices below last year's level, while Energy

Drink and Water Boost growth momentum as well as other key SKUs performance are the

keys to watch going into summer season amid intense market competition.

=/- Tingyi (0322.HK, EW) and Uni-President China (0220.HK, EW): Beverages – PET

prices dropped recently albeit still above last year's level. We expect pressure to emerge

from late 2Q-3Q onward on Tingyi and UPC's beverage segment margins if PET prices stay

elevated. Noodles – Higher palm oil and wheat prices could weigh on margins but should

be largely manageable, in our view. Competitive dynamics going into summer peak in the

beverage segment remain a key determinant of performance in 2026.

= Beer companies (1876.HK, 0291.HK, 0168.HK, 600600.SS, 600132.SS, 000729.SZ):

Overall cost pressure remains manageable, in our view, as other raw material costs have

stayed relatively steady despite higher aluminum prices. We expect improved ASP trends

– driven by a more favorable channel mix, reduced consumer promotions and a shift

toward mid‑range products – to offset the impact.

= Laopu (6181.HK, OW): Gold price decline might drag consumer demand for fixed-price