ASR Nederland N.V. 1H26 Preview: Lowering profit forecasts, on track to exceed OCC guidance

研报英文原文证据摘录

ASR Nederland N.V. 1H26 Preview: Lowering profit forecasts, on track to exceed OCC guidance

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

09 July 2026

ASR Nederland N.V. Neutral

ASRNL.AS, ASRNL NA

1H26 Preview: Lowering profit forecasts, on track to Price (08 Jul 26):€67.80

exceed OCC guidance Price Target (Dec-27):€69.00

We lower our EPS forecasts by 0.2% in 2026 and ~1% over 2027-28, ahead of European Insurance

ACASR’s 1H26 results on 19 August 2026. This reflects a reduction in our estimates Farooq Hanif

for bulk buyouts, with a lower pace of sales over 2026E-28E (although consistent (44 207) 742-8091

with management guidance of a ~ €8bn opportunity). This results in a lower level farooq.hanif@jpmorgan.com

of CSM growth and CSM release in our model, and is only partially offset by an Bingdi Fan, CFA

increase to our premium growth assumptions in non-life as we explicitly factor in (44-20) 7742-5336

the Bovemij acquisition from 2H26E. We set out key changes to our estimates in bingdi.fan@jpmorgan.com

Figure 1SumaryofchangestoourestimatesforASR. Kamran M Hossain

(44-20) 3493-3780

• Our IFRS operating profit forecasts are quite close to Bloomberg kamran.hossain@jpmorgan.com

consensus, implying close to mid-single digit operating EPS growth, Nadia Claressa

supported by growth in the non-life business, flatter growth in life insurance (44-20) 7134-7613

and and accretion from share buybacks. Our current forecasts reflect nadia.claressa@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

management guidance for buybacks, implying €225m in 2027E and €275m in

2028. However, we recognise the scope for higher buybacks given organic Specialist Sales contact details:

capital creation (OCC) and ASR’s relatively strong Solvency II capital Gigi Sparling - Specialist Sales -

position.