Mexico Equity Strategy 2Q26 Preview: Another Cautious Q with Materials Still Leading the Way

研报英文原文证据摘录

Mexico Equity Strategy 2Q26 Preview: Another Cautious Q with Materials Still Leading the Way

Materials the clear bright spot, while

Financials had the biggest swing down and Staples EBITDA growth EWW-Weighted Growth Estimate Summary

decelerated meaningfully. Current Expected EWW Growth

Expected YoY Growth

Per. Metric 1M Move Street JPM

Most sectors are still tracking for low/MSD EBITDA growth y/y in 2Qe, with Revenue 0.2p.p. 5% 1%

only Materials (+26%) breaking meaningfully higher on still-supportive 2Q26e EBITDA 1.2p.p. 11% 7%

Controlling Income -0.2p.p. 12% 8%

commodity prices, albeit decelerating against tougher comps. Real Estate Revenue 0.6p.p. 6% 1%

(+11%) follows, lifted by the integration of FMQ into FMTY’s 2Q numbers. 2026e EBITDA 1.2p.p. 9% 5%

Controlling Income 2.1p.p. 16% 11%

Financials (+6%) turns positive as provisions normalize and NIMs stabilize, Revenue 0.6p.p. 5% 0%

though April data were mixed. TMT (+4%) held in low-single-digit territory amid 2027e EBITDA 1.2p.p. 4% -2%

tough comps and an intensifying broadband price competition and penetration Controlling Income 2.1p.p. 6% -5%

ceiling. Industrials (+1%) claws back to break even on tough comps, though Source:BloombergCompanyFinancereports,L.P. J.P. Morgan estimates, and

lackluster May airport traffic signals downside risk to 2Q on weak activity and Notes: Data as of July 3, 2026

P&W engine constraints. At the bottom, Consumer Staples (-1%), even on soft

comps, slips into contraction on soft volumes, limited pricing power, and an MXN

that cushions inputs but dilutes foreign-sourced earnings.

Sector commentary for Mexico into 2Q26 points to a still-cautious quarter,

with soft underlying demand, a tempered World Cup catalyst, and continued

MXN strength (-1% q/q, -11% y/y) as the dominant swing factors.