Orsted A/S "What to expect at Q2 results" (Buy) Freshney

研报英文原文证据摘录

Orsted A/S "What to expect at Q2 results" (Buy) Freshney

ply chain. There is now a limited number of platforms able to deliver

new projects by 2031, and Ørsted is the leader in a market where competitors have exited.

Governments are competing against one another for capital. We see higher economic rents available

for all players, in excess of WACC +150-300bps (UBSe 11% project-level in the UK CfD AR7).

EVIDENCE We track industry projects, supply chain and competitive tension, which all appear to have stabilised.

We have undertaken returns analysis of projects, and looked at cash flows and resultant credit

metrics to assess what the company can afford. Our conversations with industry participants suggest

that costs are no longer increasing, but have yet to fall materially.

WHAT´S PRICED IN? At DKK 158/share close as of 3 July, we estimate Ørsted shares price in existing assets at a

6.3% WACC, and 0% chance of full stranding US offshore wind (almost all capex done, no EBITDA

and no capex refund) with no pipeline. Alternatively the shares price in 1.13GW p.a. pipeline of

projects reaching FID across 2027-37 with c50% risk of full stranding of the US. We do not price in

any disposals or value uplifts on partners' projects in offshore wind.

2035E Capacity 2030E EBITDA 2027E Net debt Valuedrivers 2027E WACC US stranding

(GW Gross) (DKKm) (DKKbn)

DKK 220 upside 37.9 40.0 5.3% No DKK 39.1

DKK 190 base 35.0 40.0 6.3% No DKK 38.5

DKK 115 downside 27.8 33.3 7.3% Yes DKK 43.1

Source: UBSe

Company Description Ørsted is the leading global offshore wind developer, operating through three segments: offshore,

onshore (onshore wind, solar PV, storage), and markets and bioenergy. We forecast it reaching 30GW

installed renewable capacity by 2030 (it was set at 50GW in 2021, then lowered).