Assessing the Risk from US Section 232 Wind Turbine Tariffs

研报英文原文证据摘录

Assessing the Risk from US Section 232 Wind Turbine Tariffs

impact from wind

been installed. JEF estimates 62 turbines could face higher tariffs from the Section 232 turbine specific tariff on SW CAPEX

investigation, assuming introduction in August (see overleaf for assumptions). Revolution Potentialspecificwindtariffturbine 27%(CAPEXtariffimpactreflected/ % asin theof marketbook valuecap) (CAPEX0% tariffimpactreflected/ % inastheof marketbook valuecap)

50% 290m / 1.1% 745m / 2.9%

75% 603m / 2.3% 1,059m / 4.1%Wind is 94% complete, so we assume limited exposure.

. 100% 917m / 3.5% 1,373m / 5.3%

Source: JEFe

What's accounted for already? Ørsted recorded a DKK ~2.8bn (~$430m) impairment on US Impact calculated net of ITC (40% ITC assumed)

offshore wind in 2025, partly reflecting steel and aluminium tariffs alongside other factors.

*We have not updated the financial model

The 1Q26 presentation notes that “in April 2026, the US Administration modified how these metal

and keep our Hold rating. The stock is

tariffs were calculated meaning that some components are now tariffed at up to 50% on the full

currently trading 13.8x FY28E P/E and 7.5x

value” and that “the estimated impact… has not resulted in further impairments in Q1 2026 compared

FY28E EV/EBITDA

to the assumptions used on 31 Dec 2025”. We interpret this as suggesting the carrying value

may already reflect, at least in part, the April 2026 regime, although embedded assumptions

remain unclear. So, we present scenarios: one assuming JEFe of April impact is reflected, and

a downside case in which it isn't (we estimate that the April framework is equivalent to ~27%

tariff impact on turbines, see overleaf for calculations).

Showing a broad range of scenarios. It is also unclear what incremental tariffs could be