European Staples Cost Tracker update: 2027E COGS inflation expectations versus May down on oil prices

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European Staples Cost Tracker update: 2027E COGS inflation expectations versus May down on oil prices

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

06 July 2026

European Staples

Cost Tracker update: 2027E COGS inflation

expectations versus May down on oil prices

We update our COGS tracker for June, now seeing 2026E/27E COGS inflation of European Food Producers,

2% and 3%, respectively. Our FY27E COGS inflation expectations for both Food Household & Personal Care

& HPC and Beverages have come down from 4% in both subcategories, mainly due Products, Beverages & Tobacco

to month-over-month improvements in the price of crude oil and energy (down Celine Pannuti, CFA AC

c.21%), as well as packaging costs such as plastic/PET (down c.14%) and steel & (44-20) 7134-7123

aluminium (down c.12%). Higher costs building already in H226 were flagged by celine.pannuti@jpmorgan.com

HPC companies during Q126 reporting, and we expect that given hedging, H2 will Edward G Hockin AC

likely be largely locked in by now and the question is more on the extent of input (44-20) 7742-6937

edward.hockin@jpmorgan.com

costs inflation to be seen in 2027. Despite some of these sequentially lower costs,

Samuel Lewis

our tracker still points to some step up in 2027 COGS inflation for HPC companies

(44-20) 3493-6729

vs 2026 (to the M-HSD level). As we head into Q2/H1 reporting, ability to pass samuel.lewis@jpmorgan.com

through pricing from H2 will therefore be a key topic alongside a consumer Mafalda Gaspar

demand backdrop that remains relatiuvely soft. We continue to prefer names with (44-20) 7134-4642

volume led LFL visibility into the coming quarters (Unilever, Danone, ABI, mafalda.gaspar@jpmorgan.com

Carlsberg, Kerry, all OW). J.P. Morgan Securities plc

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