China Metals Activity Tracker 3 weeks of copper & aluminium inventory declines signal strengthening China metals consumption

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China Metals Activity Tracker 3 weeks of copper & aluminium inventory declines signal strengthening China metals consumption

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

06 July 2026

China Metals Activity Tracker

3 weeks of copper & aluminium inventory declines

signal strengthening China metals consumption

We present our high-frequency inventory trends for base metals, steel and iron ore European Metals, Mining & Steel

ACin China for the week ended 3 Jul’26. Our data plots China weekly metals inventory Dominic O'Kane

trends, a proxy for consumption. After six weeks of weak copper inventory (44-20) 7742-6729

movement, Copper has recorded three consecutive weeks of larger inventory dominic.j.okane@jpmorgan.com

drawdowns (-13kt last week). These significant reductions reduce China’s total J.P. Morgan Securities plc

copper inventory to the multi-year low for this time of year at 163kt. We interpret Patrick Jones

this as a signal of improved China copper consumption, synchronous with the US (44-20) 7742-5964

patrick.jones@jpmorgan.com

continuing to pull metal to COMEX, ahead of the US Department of Commerce J.P. Morgan Securities plc

decision on whether to impose US copper import tariffs. China’s copper purchase Asia Pacific Basic Materials

premium climbed back to >$70/t in the last week, which is a signal of improving

regional demand. Lyndon Fagan

(61-2) 9003-8648

lyndon.fagan@jpmorgan.com

This de-stocking trend also continues in Aluminium & Zinc. In Aluminium, last J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

week saw the largest de-stocking since Chinese New Year (-75kt) and China’s North America Metals, Mining &

aluminium inventories have dropped >300kt in the past 8 weeks. Zinc inventories Clean Tech

saw a significant drawdown for the first time since CNY at -11kt. Bill Peterson