July portfolio-07/01/2026

研报英文原文证据摘录

July portfolio-07/01/2026

Equity Portfolio Norway

1 JUL 2026

AKRBP – BUY, TP NOK 400

We keep Aker BP in our portfolio. Brent has fallen roughly USD 20/bbl through June as a US/Iranian ceasefire took hold and Gulf barrels

began moving again, triggering a 9% share price decline in Aker BP. With the geopolitical risk premium largely priced out, the asymmetry

looks attractive as the deal is reversible, oil well restarts are complex with risk of lasting field damage, and Strait of Hormuz transits must run

seamlessly before the oil market balance is restored. Hence, we could quickly back at materially higher prices. However, if oil prices were to

decline further, Aker BP's low-cost production base (USD 7/bbl) will still ensure solid cash flow generation. In addition, the company only has

one heavy capex year left of its 3–4-year program to deliver growth to ~525 kbd in 2028e. With the majority of spending behind it, the market

was throughout 2025 increasingly willing to price in the future potential, and additionally the company will pay out a solid 9% dividend yield,

which will grow at current prices. We think these factors will result in continued outperformance vs peers, as in 2025 when Aker BP

outperformed even on falling oil prices. At Brent USD 90/80 per bbl in 2026/LT and gas USD 14/10/9 per mcf in 2026/2027/LT, we find the

pricing attractive at an avg. FCF-yield of 15% in 2026-30e (13%/17%/24%/15%/6% in 2026/27/28/29/30e). BUY / TP NOK 400

Analyst(s): Tom Erik Kristiansen – Tel: +47 24 13 21 86 – tek@paretosec.com / Olav Haugerud – Tel: +47 22 87 88 07 – olav.haugerud@paretosec.com

BAKKA – BUY, TP NOK 500

We keep BAKKA in the July portfolio as our relative top pick within the salmon farming sector. We see continued upside to 2026e volume