Intel Corp (INTC US) Buy: More upside from core server & foundry valuation

研报英文原文证据摘录

Intel Corp (INTC US) Buy: More upside from core server & foundry valuation

wed for ROE (%) 1.8 5.7 9.6 10.8

2026, we believe the street still underestimates 2027 growth potential despite a 23%

upward revision since Intel’s 1Q26 results. We raise our 2027 server CPU shipment 52-WEEK PRICE (USD)

growth estimate from 20% to 30% y-o-y as capacity for server CPUs expands amid 230.00

reallocation, along with the ramp of 18A – running ahead of internal projections. Our

115.00

2027 DCAI revenue estimate of USD33.0bn is 20% above consensus estimates.

Improving foundry narrative; EMIB could drive material upside: Foundry constraints 07/25 12/25 07/260.00

in front-end fabrication and advanced packaging are driving a supply-demand Target price: 200.00

imbalance. With TSMC’s additional 3nm capacity coming online only in 2H27, customers High: 140.94 Low: 19.31 Current: 127.02

Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC estimates

are exploring new foundry partners. Intel is emerging as a leading option, signing

Terafab and Apple as customers, and engaging with Google and NVIDIA. Packaging

Frank Lee*

also remains a pressure point – tight TSMC CoWoS capacity is pushing customers to Global Head of Tech Hardware & Semi Research

consider Intel’s EMIB solution. CoWoS-L is largely allocated to Nvidia, while CoWoS-S The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

peaks at 3.3x reticle size. EMIB can scale to 12x reticle size, making it an attractive frank.lee@hsbc.com.hk

+852 2996 6916

alternative. Our sensitivity analysis suggests a broader EMIB adoption could lift Intel

Pulkit Aggarwal*

EPS by 23% in 2028 vs the base case. Intel securing an order of 3m Google TPUs is a Associate

key driver of our 2027/28 foundry revenue estimate increase (8%/7% above consensus). Bangalore