Expert call feedback: Chip blip coming in 2028?

研报英文原文证据摘录

Expert call feedback: Chip blip coming in 2028?

Deutsche Bank

Research

Asia Industry Date

Europe 23 June 2026

North America Expert call feedback

Industry Update

TMT

Semiconductors

Chip blip coming in 2028?

Robert Sanders

Expert call feedback: the case for a blip year in 2028 led by memory Research Analyst

We recently hosted Dr Handel Jones from IBS to discuss the semiconductor +44-20-754-58394

industry outlook. IBS outlined a positive view on the long-term outlook of the chip

Ross Seymore

industry to 2030 and 2035 (2030E: $1.9 trn, 2035E: $3.7trn). This is equivalent to Research Analyst

very strong growth (5-yr CAGR: 21%, 10-yr CAGR: 17%). However, more +1-415-617-3268

controversially, IBS is leaning to a scenario (p=0.55) of a sharp memory slowdown

Johannes Schaller

in 2028, with DRAM sales forecast to decline by 26% and NAND sales forecast to

Associate Director of Equity Research - Germany

decline by 12%, as pricing turns down. This is in contrast to DB's positive view

+49-69-910-31731

(outlined here). The memory thesis of IBS is built around a view that fast-expanding

memory fab capacity and the 4F2 migration will generate more GB supply than GB Melissa Weathers

demand during 2028, and that memory makers will make price concessions despite Research Analyst

+1-212-250-2134

LTAs. Underpinning this scenario, IBS forecasts major demand destruction as high

memory pricing and a markedly soft macro bites in core mainstream categories like George Brown

PC, smartphone, TV, and auto. For example, IBS forecasts a 19% decline in PC Research Associate

shipments in 2026 with declining DRAM content. IBS also forecasts a 23% decline +44-20-754-74893

in smartphone volumes. As for data center spend, IBS sees an increasing