SGO: Pre-Q2 Model Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

SGO: Pre-Q2 Model Update

stments are concentrated DPS 2.30 2.40 2.55 2.70EQUITY in Northern Europe, where we now forecast -3.1%, -5.4% and -4.0% Div Yield 3.0% 3.1% 3.3% 3.5%

scope impacts across Q2'26-Q4'26. We expect these deals to have been

completed for a MSD-HSD% EV/EBITDA multiple (we forecast EUR500m AllPricedvaluesas ofin priorEUR unlesstradingotherwiseday's marketnoted.close, EST (unless otherwise noted).

of divestment EV in our FY26e cashflow), and to be accretive to EBITDA

margins by 10-20bps. We have not yet factored in any impact from

the Nordic tile distribution business (expected to close in July) or Dahl

(expected to close early next year), which should add ~EUR1.5-1.6bn in EV

and be a further ~35bps accretive to EBITDA margins.

Limited change to our organic estimates

We forecast a Q2'26 organic growth rate of +1.3% (prev. +1.5%, guide of

'minor' organic growth), with minor tweaks to Northern Europe to account

for a weak UK volume environment. That said, our view on volumes and

pricing are largely unchanged for Saint-Gobain's other regions, and we

leave our Q3-Q4'26 organic growth estimates unchanged.

Estimate changes

We adjust our estimates to account for our updated M&A modelling -

as mentioned previously, we now forecast a Q2'26-Q4'26 scope revenue

impact of -1.1%, -2.2% and -1.8%, respectively, down from our previous

estimates of +0.1%, -0.2% and -0.2%. Our FX estimates have increased on

account of a stronger USD (FY26e FX impact of 0.0% vs -0.6% previously).

We raise our EBIT margin assumptions in Northern Europe by 30bps (from

8.8% FY26e to 9.1%) to account for accelerated divestments of lower-

margin distribution businesses. Our FY26 revenue/EBITDA estimates fall by

0.7% and 0.3%, respectively. Our price target remains unchanged at EUR95,