Saint-Gobain (1K) | Buy | H1 preview: Back to positive LFL growth in Q2

研报英文原文证据摘录

Saint-Gobain (1K) | Buy | H1 preview: Back to positive LFL growth in Q2

Importantly, though, we expect the group to generate a slightly positive price-cost FCF 2,807 2,852 3,268

spread in the current inflationary environment. EPS adj. and ful. dil. 6.69 7.16 7.98

Consensus EPS 6.3 6.9 7.5

In terms of the group's market outlook, we expect management to continue to Net dividend 2.20 2.39 2.66

guide for a gradual improvement in Europe, a gradually improving outlook in FY to 31/12 (EUR) 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

North America with an easier comparison base in H2, and growth in Asia-Pacific P/E adj and ful. dil. 11.9 11.2 10.0

and Latin America, mainly driven by India, Southeast Asia and Mexico. Similarly, EV/EBITDA 6.7 6.2 5.6

we expect the group to continue to guide for a slightly positive price-cost spread, EV/EBIT 9.2 8.3 7.4

FCF yield 7.2% 7.4% 8.5% enabling an EBITDA margin of more than 15.0% in 2026. Dividend yield 2.8% 3.0% 3.3%

Estimate revisions mainly reflect pricing and divestments ND(F+IFRS16)/EBITDA 1.3 0.9 0.7

Ahead of the H1 results, we have only fine-tuned our estimates, slightly Gearing 23.4% 13.7% 8.7%

ROIC 12.3% 13.2% 14.7%

moderating our assumptions with respect to raw material/energy and selling EV/IC 1.5 1.5 1.4

prices, and accounting for the latest divestments. Overall, our adjusted EPS

Sector Most Pref. Sector Least Pref.numbers are revised down by 3.2% on average for 2026-28E. CRH HOCHTIEF

Furthermore, we would point out that we expect the most recent divestments, Holcim

particularly the sale of its Dahl specialist distribution business in Scandinavia, to

have an accretive impact on the EBITDA margin of 40-50 bps by 2027E, enabling

the group to further raise its structural margin profile going forward.

TP of EUR95 and Buy rating reiterated