Indonesia Poultry

研报英文原文证据摘录

Indonesia Poultry

g volatility. Poultry 22.5 3.5

processing and consumer products offer greater earnings stability 20.0 19.2 3.33.0

and stronger operating leverage than the more volatile upstream and 17.5 2.82.5

2.3 midstream segments. Although growth in consumer products has 15.0 10Y CAGR (2015-25) 2.0 12.5

Chicken = +4.4% 1.8 been strong, at a ~17% CAGR since 2021, competition has intensified, Beef = +1.2% 10.0 8.2 1.5

particularly from CMRY, highlighting the importance of brand building 7.5 1.3 Fish = 2.2%

and deeper channel penetration. In this context, JPFA’s push to double 5.0 0.5 0.81.0

consumer products revenue by 2030E, supported by aggressive 2.5 0.50.3

distribution network and SKU expansion, is gaining traction, with market - -

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

share gains in 2025 and beyond at CPIN’s expense.

Chicken Fish Beef (RHS)

• We think CPIN’s ~100% valuation premium is increasingly difficult Source: BPS, Macquarie Research, July 2026

to justify as fundamentals converge. Although structural demand

remains intact, near-term sector earnings are constrained by cyclical Figure 4 - Incremental chicken

supply imbalances and input cost pressures. Against this backdrop, demand for Free Meal Program

we prefer JPFA, which offers improving earnings quality through a Realisation New Plan

Target (As of May (Under new stronger downstream mix and a materially enhanced balance sheet EstimatedFree NutritiousincrementalMeal programchicken demand from

after deleveraging since 2023. By contrast, CPIN faces limited earnings 2026) mgmt)

Recipients (mn) 82.9 63.1 50.1

growth, and its premium valuation looks increasingly difficult to sustain Chicken (gr/portion) 75 75 75