Initiation: Valuation premium unjustified

研报英文原文证据摘录

Initiation: Valuation premium unjustified

Macquarie Equity Research Charoen Pokphand Indonesia

Key Risks to Investment Thesis Company Description

• Lower-than expected key input prices (i.e., corn and Charoen Pokphand Indonesia (CPIN IJ) is Indonesia’s largest

soybean meal) for Feed segment on stabilising geopolitical integrated poultry company with operations in chicken feed,

conditions and better crop yields. breeding day old chicks (DOC), broiler/livebird farming, and

• Higher-than-expected broiler and DOC prices due to processed chicken meat products (frozen food). The company

stabilising supply/demand dynamics. was founded in 1972 by the Jiaravanon family, who also owns

• Favourable change in regulations or support from Charoen Pokphand Group in Thailand. The family owns a

55.5% stake in CPIN through PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia government's policies.

Group.

• Improving economic growth.

Figure 1 - 12-month forward P/E: CPIN vs JPFA Figure 2 - ROE: CPIN vs JPFA

34 25%

20%

14 15%

6 10%

-2

Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24 Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar-25 Jun-25 Sep-25 Dec-25 Mar-26 Jun-26 5%

0%

JPFA 12M-fwd P/E CPIN 12M-fwd P/E 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, July 2026 JPFA CPIN

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, July 2026

Charoen Pokphand Indonesia (CPIN IJ) IDR/(bn) unless otherwise noted

Income Statement Dec FY 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E Q1/26A Q2/26E Balance Sheet 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

Revenue 70,705 75,762 80,774 85,632 19,952 17,764 Cash 4,461 5,314 6,134 6,659

Cost of Goods Sold 58,285 62,882 67,850 71,331 15,493 15,338 Receivables 2,791 3,094 3,409 3,732

Gross Profit 12,420 12,879 12,924 14,301 4,459 2,425 Inventories 11,406 12,340 13,594 14,585