1H/2Q Preview: Progressing...Slowly

研报英文原文证据摘录

1H/2Q Preview: Progressing...Slowly

France | Food & HPC

Danone EquityJuneResearch29, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGE1H/2Q Preview: Progressing...Slowly

We update ahead of 1H results (29 Jul). Improvement in US sales RATING BUY

momentum is happening, but slower than we had anticipated; capacity PRICE €69.98^

constraint is being progressively addressed, but competitiveness is intense. PRICE TARGET | % TO PT €80.00 (€82.00) | +14%

Infant formula sales also steadily recover from the Jan recalls, we think. 52W HIGH-LOW €80.14 - €60.64

That leaves our 2Q OSGe at 3.5% (VA cons 3.7%), alongside an 1H op margin FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 97.7% | 151.09

est of 13.1% (cons 13.2%). BN FP is back at >17.5x, that demands clear MARKET CAP €45.1B | $51.4B

further progress thru 2H as well. TICKER BN FP

^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

Scanner trends in Q2, a mixed regional picture (Exhibits 4-10): North America momentum

broadly stable, Europe improving, & China IMF online slowing, but from a high base.

FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

In the US, scanner data picked up modestly through May–June, but capacity constraint 2026 2027 2026 2027•

resolution progress appears sedate still. Yogurt growth is tracking in line with Q1, REV <1% +2% +1% +2%

with Oikos/protein continuing to drive performance, The rest of the portfolio remains a EPS <1% +2% +1% +5%

drag. Plant-based volumes are under increasing pressure, though creamers improved

sequentially to flat growth in Q2 (vs. -7% in Q1).

China online IMF sales have notably turned negative in recent months. Worries of an• Exhibit 1 - BN: 2Q26 LFL growth%, JEFe

indirect headwind on Aptamil demand from the recalls outside of China in Jan remain 2Q26 LFL growth% EDP Spec Nut Waters Total

unfounded, we understand.