Danone: Q2 Preview: Forecasting 3.6% OSG

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Danone: Q2 Preview: Forecasting 3.6% OSG

Equity Research

29 June 2026

Danone

Q2 Preview: Forecasting 3.6% OSG

BN remains one of our key picks. Our Q2 OSG forecast is

unchanged at 3.6% but includes a 50bp drag from the

formula recall. We expect some normalisation of China SN DANO.PA/BN FP OVERWEIGHT Unchanged

growth due to slowing IMF category growth, partly offset by European Consumer NEUTRAL

some gradual acceleration in US EDP growth. Waters should Staples Unchanged

by dynamic. Price Target EUR 81.00

Unchanged

Price (26-Jun-26) EUR 72.12

Danone reports H1 results on 29 July. For Q2, we make no change to our group OSG Potential Upside/Downside +12.3%

forecast of 3.6%, although we make modest tweaks beneath the surface by geography and Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

category. In our view, Danone’s underlying growth engines remain in good shape, but Q2 is

still likely to show a number of moving parts. In North America, we expect EDP to improve Market Cap (EUR mn) 49254

progressively as incremental yoghurt capacity comes on stream and creamers annualise Shares Outstanding (mn) 682.96

last year’s disruption, although we expect plant-based (ie Danone's Silk brand) to remain Free Float (%) 94.81

weak. In EMEA, SN should improve sequentially, but infant formula is still likely to be a 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 1.3

headwind following the Q1 recalls, with European scanner data suggesting the category Dividend Yield (%) 3.12

remained under pressure in April/May despite shelf presence having normalised. We Return on Equity TTM (%) 10.99

expect the drag to be around half the level of Q1 ie 50bps. In APAC, Waters should improve Current BVPS (EUR) 24.86

as weather normalises after flooding in Indonesia weighed on Q1, while China SN faces Source: Bloomberg