Vyepti and Abilify to Carry, for Guidance Skew to the Upside; 2Q Preview

研报英文原文证据摘录

Vyepti and Abilify to Carry, for Guidance Skew to the Upside; 2Q Preview

y in TRx data so far. That said, we see a more challenging set-up from 60,00050,000 Caplytaapproval Nov:FDAin

MDD

40,0002H as competition ramps more meaningfully. As such, we lower 2026E Rexulti sales by 4%.

30,000

Abilify Maintena ex-US generics not in sight: We continue to view the Abilify LAI franchise 20,00010,000

as a steady contributor, supported by ongoing conversion to Asimtufii and a resilient base. 0

Management does not expect meaningful generic aripiprazole LAI entry ex-US in 2026, with key . VRAYLAR INVEGA SUSTENNA REXULTI CAPLYTA ABILIFY MAINTENA ABILIFY ASIMTUFII COBENFY Source: Jefferies Research; IQVIA IMS

manufacturer Pharmathen historically facing execution challenges (e.g. lanreotide generics).

The first US generic will launch Dec 2026, so net-net we expect Abilify to continue growing in

2026 and model generic erosion from 2027+E.

We think Lundbeck could raise its guidance again: We see a clear set-up for Lundbeck to turn

more constructive on its 2026 outlook, either through a raise on both Revs and Adj. EBITDA

or at least a narrowing towards the upper-end of the range, supported by continued Vyepti

strength, plus the Abilify franchise. JEFe and cons sit towards the top-end of both implied Revs

and Adj. EBITDA ranges.

Revenue +7%-9% CER, suggesting DKK25.30-25.77bn assuming Lun -4% FX vs JEFe +9%•

CER to DKK25.91bn with -2% FX & Visible Alpha cons DKK25.68bn (DKK25.57-25.75bn)

Adj. EBITDA +8%-14%, suggesting DKK7.75-8.18bn assuming Lun -9% FX vs JEFe +13.9%•

CER to DKK8.17bn assuming Lun FX & cons DKK8.10bn (DKK7.98-8.24bn)

Exhibit 1 - We are less pessimistic on the decline Exhibit 2 - More optimistic on Vyepti's growth

of the Abilify franchise 2026-27E 10,000

4,400 9,000