LUNDBECK (=) : Reassuring underlying performance underneath the one-off effects

研报英文原文证据摘录

LUNDBECK (=) : Reassuring underlying performance underneath the one-off effects

EQUITIES

PHARMACEUTICALS

LUNDBECK NEUTRALPRICE* DKK42.3  TARGET PRICE DKK45 (UPSIDE 6%)

FLASH NOTE

Reassuring underlying performance underneath the one-off effects

12 MAY 2026 Securities Research Report Production time: 11:50* (London time)

Research Analyst & Publishing Entities

Kirsty Ross-Stewart BNP Paribas London Branch (+44) 203 430 8452 kirsty.ross-stewart@uk.bnpparibas.com

What happened?

FY26 upgraded for the fourth quarter in a row with company now anticipating revenues CER growth between 7-9%

(previously 5-8%) and Adj. EBITDA CER growth between 8-14% (previously 4-12%) despite narrowing R&D

expectations to the top end of the previous range, now DKK5.6-5.9bn (previously DKK5.5-5.9bn). Underlying revenue

growth of 13% excludes the DKK470m uplift from inventory stocking in partner markets which contributed to the strong

headline 6/22% product sales/Adj EBITDA beat. Excluding this impact, Q1 still reported a LSD beat vs consensus which

we believe will drive shares upwards given our understanding that consensus numbers already partially reflected the

inventory build.

BNPP View:

We understand underlying Vyepti momentum (+4% beat in the quarter) is the key driver of the guidance upgrade with

revised launch assumptions for Abilify Maintena generics (now largely expected in 2027 except in Australia and

Canada) and some help from better than expected performance in partner markets also contributing, but to a lesser

extent. Despite the revised R&D guidance now moving closer to the top of the previous range (note announced Ph1b

start for an orexin in narcolepsy insomnolence), Adjusted EBITDA guidance upgraded by 3% at the mid-point. While