1H26 Preview - Still On Track

研报英文原文证据摘录

1H26 Preview - Still On Track

lf of which is classified Exhibit 1 - Culture of Under-Promise and Over-

Deliveras equity and half debt for the ND/EBITDA calculation. With the potential benefit from the IPO Consistent upgrades: +300–500bps vs initial

of India (further 0.2x on ND/EBITDA), this could allow for a SBB, at the earliest, with F26 results guidance in most years

in Feb 2027.

What does the market need to get comfortable on for a re-rating? Carlsberg shares are

inexpensive at 12x cal 2027E PE and EV/EBITDA 8.2x, with leverage reduced post the hybrid

bond issuance. For the shares to re-rate, we believe the market needs greater comfort on the

algorithm of 4-6% org sales with margin expansion. .

Source: Jefferies, company data.

Top-line growth. The "growth" parts of the portfolio of premium beer, soft drinks, zero alc and

Exhibit 2 - Breakdown of drivers contributing

beyond beer (c.50% of vols) grew 7% in 1Q26, with the remainder, which is largely mainstream to 4–6% Organic Sales Growth

beer, slightly down. We see the company focused on both dialing up the growth part of the

portfolio but also driving a stronger performance in the mainstream beer element. Multi-bev

in W Europe should help to drive stronger performance in beer, and we anticipate that China

should return to growth despite near-term pressures.

Self-help on costs. The Britvic integration is on-track, with 30% of the £110m delivered in F25

and a further 30-40% expected in F26 or worth 2% to group EBIT. In addition, COGS per hl should .

be flattish given the focus on supply chain across procurement, production, value engineering

and logistics. With pricing being taken, this argues for margin expansion. We model 5.2% org Exhibit 3 - CARLB trading at a 27% discount

EBIT growth in F26.