J.P. Morgan Australia FTM 6 Jul 26 PEXA; Australian Banks; Suncorp Group Ltd and More

研报英文原文证据摘录

J.P. Morgan Australia FTM 6 Jul 26 PEXA; Australian Banks; Suncorp Group Ltd and More

Asia Pacific Equity Research

Australia First to Market 04 July 2026

Top Stories

| PEXA (Tharan Jeyathasan) (PXA AU, N)

Draft IPART outcome 20% down; d/g to Neutral

IPART have today released their draft pricing outcome, which is prima facie worse than our prior expectation of no change, and

worse than what we believed the market was pricing in at 15% down. Mathematically, holding the expense base completely flat,

a 20% reduction (which is a ~$70mn reduction) in revenues should correspond to a 37% reduction in operating EBITDA in the

Exchange business with EBITDA margins dropping from 55% to 43% - assuming no change in the expense base. There is a

Demand Volatility Adjustment Mechanism (DVAM) which will apply an adjustment at the next regulated period to offset volumes

being 5% or more lower than forecast, so there is some insurance against getting hit twice. Holding the expense base flat

would drop the Exchange EBITDA margin to 43%. We drop our PT to $10.50/share and downgrade to Neutral.

Australian Banks (Andrew Triggs)

APRA Mar-26 property stats, inaugural system-wide stress test, consultation on standardised risk

weights

There were several releases this week from APRA, including: 1) APRA property statistics for the Mar-26 qtr (which showed

high-risk housing flows broadly stable); 2) Results released for the inaugural system-wide stress test (with the bank sector

achieving a pass mark despite likely dipping into liquidity buffers in a stress event); and 3) APRA consultation on amendments

to the standardised risk weight regime (with little impact on the majors given the standardised floor is not currently binding).