Global Technology: NAND Industry Outlook: Diverging Trends

研报英文原文证据摘录

Global Technology: NAND Industry Outlook: Diverging Trends

Global IdeaMstocks might lack near-term cyclical catalysts until supply and demand dynamics become

more clear into 2028 and beyond. That said, multiples could continue to re-rate on the

back of favorable LTAs.

Longsys

Duan Liu

We have significantly raised our estimates for Longsys on better-than-expected pricing

trends and high conviction levels on 2027 shortages. We expect Longsys's long-term

margin profile to improve due to its better product mix. Its TCM business model will likely

bring a more stable margin profile over the long term (25-35%) as inventory pressure is

shifted to customers, and the company's in-house controller development could further

increase the value add on firmware and customized services. We are slightly concerned

about muted volume growth due to suppliers' shifting capacity to CSP customers, which

should cap near-term volume growth, but this should be well understood by the market

and already in the price.

Phison

Charlie Chan

2Q26 preliminary results were a strong beat vs. estimates, driven by more resilient pricing

hike intervals and shipments than expected. 3Q26 is expected to be the peak quarter of

the year, supported by additional supply support from Kioxia’s dummy die, which could

drive around 20% QoQ revenue growth and a better-than-feared flat QoQ margin.

However, this strength appears cyclical rather than sustainable; gross margin expansion is

still expected to peak around 2Q26–3Q26 as low-cost NAND inventory is depleted and

higher-cost supply begins to flow through under FIFO accounting. By 4Q26, emerging

weakness in consumer tech and a more moderate pricing environment are expected to

drive revenue down around 20% QoQ, with margins normalizing to roughly 50%.