J.P. Morgan India FTM 3 Jul 26 India Data Watch; India Housing Finance; India Pharma and CRDMO; India Cement Sector; India Consumer Discretionary and More

研报英文原文证据摘录

J.P. Morgan India FTM 3 Jul 26 India Data Watch; India Housing Finance; India Pharma and CRDMO; India Cement Sector; India Consumer Discretionary and More

Asia Pacific Equity Research

India First to Market 03 July 2026

Top Stories

India (Sajjid Z Chinoy)

• High frequency indicators remain resilient ...

• … credit growth remained strong and broad-based in May ...

• … and after a weak May print, GST collections picked up in June

• But June registered a 40% deficit in rainfall and El Niño remains a key risk

| CW | India Housing Finance (Gaurav Khandelwal, CFA)

This quarter is all about growth; upgrading Bajaj HF to Neutral and placing on Positive Catalyst

Watch

We expect loan growth to be the key stock price driver in the upcoming 1Q27 results. Our discussions point to easing balance

transfer-out/refinancing trends, helped by expectations of mortgage rates bottoming and, in part, 1Q seasonality. NIMs are

likely to contract q/q across the board, while AQ should remain benign. We upgrade Bajaj HF to N (from UW) and place it on

Positive Catalyst Watch, as we expect loan growth guidance to beat expectations (FY27E Street/JPM: 22/25%; 1QFY27A 24%

y/y) alongside prudent CoF management this quarter. We believe the franchise is best-in-class and warrants a premium, which

we see as adequately reflected in 21x/2.55x FY28E PE/PB. PNB HF remains our top pick, while we are Neutral on LIC HF.

India Pharma and CRDMO (Bansi Desai, CFA)

Domestic + RoW underpin growth; US ex-gRevlimid stable; FX tailwinds persist; CRDMO remains

lumpy

We expect Indian pharma companies to deliver 13%/1%/(10%) YoY growth in revenue/EBITDA/PAT in 1QFY27, with EBITDA

margins down 270 bps YoY but up ~150 bps QoQ. Ex gRevlimid, we forecast 17%/12%/7% YoY growth, led by double digit