J.P. Morgan Taiwan FTM 3 Jul 26 Greater China; Emerging Markets Equity Strategy and More

研报英文原文证据摘录

J.P. Morgan Taiwan FTM 3 Jul 26 Greater China; Emerging Markets Equity Strategy and More

Asia Pacific Equity Research

Taiwan First to Market 03 July 2026

Top Stories

Greater China (Feng Zhu)

• China: resilient manufacturing and easing cost pressures in the June PMIs

• Solid but diverging industrial profits in May

• Taiwan: June PMI still firm despite modest easing

• Hong Kong: benign inflation, strong trade, and solid retail sales in May

• Next week: China FX reserves, CPI, credit; Hong Kong PMI; Taiwan CPI and trade

Emerging Markets Equity Strategy (Rajiv Batra/Emy Shayo Cherman/Anindita Gandhi)

June & 2Q 2026 Wrap – Fed turn, geopolitical resolution, and AI dispersion

MSCI EM posted a monthly decline in June (-1.7%) even as the quarter ended up +23.3%, the best since 2Q2009. In

June, both MSCI EM and S&P500 (-1.1%) continued to refresh all-time highs led by the AI/Tech trade, but volatility was also

heightened due to concerns over valuation of tech heavyweights, dragging index performance to negative for the month.

Korean equities also saw heightened volatility resulting from large outstanding leveraged ETFs. On geopolitics, an MoU

between Iran and the US extended the ceasefire for 60 days and provided for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Though

the terms of a final deal are still being worked out, the truce has removed the most acute tail risk to the global economy

regarding energy supply disruptions. Implementation risks, miscalculation, and potential re-escalations remain key tail risks but

shipping has gradually picked up through the SoH despite sporadic clashes. Oil prices crashed materially, with both Brent and

WTI down >20%. A strong dollar weighed on the prospects of a cyclical trade with JPM broad dollar up +2.0% and DXY up